From 1940 to 2000, U.S. presidential elections were more predictable, and fans of the Washington football team noticed a curious trend that seemed to hint at election outcomes: “The Redskins Rule.” This phenomenon, named after Washington’s former team, posits that the result of Washington’s final home game before a presidential election could predict the victor.
If Washington won, it suggested the incumbent’s party would stay in power; if they lost, it forecasted a win for the challenging party. For six decades, the rule seemed uncannily accurate, adding an extra layer of intrigue to the team’s games in election years.
However, the rule started to falter in the 2000s, missing predictions in 2004, 2012, and 2016. To account for these anomalies, statistician Steve Hirdt of the Elias Sports Bureau developed an amended version of the rule.
Even with the team’s name change to the Commanders, the “Commanders Rule” has still predicted more than 90 percent of presidential elections correctly since the team’s move to the Beltway in 1937.
Fast-forward to Sunday night in Landover, Maryland. In a dramatic game against the Chicago Bears, Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels launched a Hail Mary touchdown pass in the final seconds, securing an 18-15 win for the Commanders.
This last-minute triumph reignited discussions about the Commanders Rule, giving some supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris newfound confidence ahead of Tuesday’s election.
The internet quickly lit up with reactions. One X user declared, “That Hail Mary was good news for Kamala Harris and the Democrats if this trend holds true.”
Another added, “God, watching the Commanders game, just called Kamala.” Even a Bears fan backing Harris found solace in the trend, writing, “The one silver lining: The Bears-Commanders game has predicted almost every election over the past few decades. The Commanders win predicts Kamala will win the election!”
Others took a more humorous angle on the tradition. “THE COMMANDERS WIN,” one user proclaimed on X. “Huge boost for Kamala Harris as the ‘Commanders Rule’ now indicates the incumbent party will retain control of the White House.”
Another Democrat joked about becoming a “true believer” in the rule after Noah Brown caught Daniels’ Hail Mary pass: “Me 30 seconds ago: the Redskins Rule is a spurious connection with absolutely no meaning. Me now: the Redskins Rule is an undeniable ironclad predictor of the future.”
Though many recognize the rule as a lighthearted tradition rather than a serious indicator, it remains an amusing ritual in the lead-up to presidential elections.
For now, fans and politicos alike will wait to see if the Commanders’ win, following decades of “predictions,” is indeed another tally in favor of the incumbent party.
