Talk about a longshot.
Bronny James, stepping into the NBA with the Los Angeles Lakers, is not just any rookie.
His entrance is marked by rather modest expectations given his statistical output during his lone season at USC—averaging 4.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game. However, some bettors seem to be placing their faith in him defying the odds in a significant way, as evidenced by the surprisingly high number who have backed him to clinch the Rookie of the Year title.
The discourse surrounding Bronny has been fervent, fueled by his decision to declare for the NBA Draft after a single college season—a move rarely made by players with such stats.
Yet, Bronny is not just any player; he is the eldest son of LeBron James, whose dream of playing alongside his son in the NBA is well-known. This unique dynamic adds a layer of intrigue and expectation that few other rookies ever experience.
Expectations were that the Los Angeles Lakers would select Bronny, which they did, taking him with the 55th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. This decision came amidst reports that Rich Paul had warned other teams interested in Bronny that he would head to Australia if any team other than the Lakers picked him—a strategic move that ensured he ended up with his father’s team.
In the wider context of the draft, when you consider that the Atlanta Hawks were expected to choose between Zaccharie Risacher and Alexandre Sarr for the first overall pick—eventually selecting Risacher—the idea of betting on Bronny James as the number one pick seems particularly far-fetched. Yet, according to ESPN, hundreds did precisely that, taking the long odds of 200-1 offered by BetMGM.
This betting pattern likely includes strategic bettors aiming to manipulate their perceived profile at sportsbooks.
“I’ve been limited at all these books,” Steve said. “I’m not really betting that Bronny will go No. 1 overall; what I’m effectively betting is that there’s some chance that all these books will say, ‘whoever bet Bronny must be dumb’ and then they’ll give me better limits. That’s the bet that I’m making.” Steve was not alone in using Bronny bets to raise their limits at sportsbooks. Alex Baker, a former high-level daily fantasy sports player, saw social media posts about heavy action on Bronny go No. 1 and decided to put $20 on it. He posted a screenshot of his bet slip on X with a tongue-in-cheek line.
RELATED: Favorites To Win The 2025 NBA Finals Emerge Following Celtics 18th Championship
These establishments often limit customers who consistently outsmart their odds, and some bettors may place what appear to be ‘silly’ bets to balance their accounts and avoid such restrictions.
Interestingly, despite the extremely long odds of +25000, more wagers have been placed on Bronny winning the NBA Rookie of the Year than on any other player—surpassing even the favorite, Sarr, who sits at +425. While this might hint at some perceived value given his underdog status, the realistic prospects of Bronny surpassing a highly competitive rookie class seem quite slim.
The scenario sets up an intriguing narrative for Bronny’s rookie season. Should he defy these immense odds, it would make for a stunning upset. I’ve expressed skepticism here, and I’d be more than willing to literally eat this article if Bronny proves me wrong—but I suspect that won’t be necessary.
