Three weeks into the NFL season, it’s still too early to definitively say which teams will be contending for Super Bowl LIX. However, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has provided a fresh perspective, offering insight into how each team stacks up after a few games. While anything can happen between now and February, the FPI’s predictions are already starting to take shape.
Following the results of Monday Night Football, the FPI updated its projections for all 32 teams. The biggest winner in this latest update? The Buffalo Bills. After an impressive performance that saw them dominate the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Bills now have the best Super Bowl odds in the league. According to ESPN’s computer model, Buffalo boasts a 15.8% chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans this February, putting them in the top spot among all teams.
Not far behind, the Kansas City Chiefs come in with a 12.7% chance to win the Super Bowl.
While some argue that the Chiefs’ odds might be a bit inflated due to refereeing decisions that played a role in their recent narrow victories, Kansas City remains a powerhouse led by superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Despite their early struggles, the Chiefs’ ability to find ways to win keeps them firmly in the championship conversation.
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In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles hold the best Super Bowl odds, with the FPI giving them a 9.5% chance of taking home the title. The Eagles have looked strong in the early weeks of the season and are considered one of the top contenders to represent the NFC in the big game. Hot on their heels are the Green Bay Packers at 7.2%, followed closely by the San Francisco 49ers at 7.1%. Both teams have shown promise early on, with Green Bay’s new-look offense gaining traction under Jordan Love, and San Francisco continuing to display a well-rounded, competitive roster.
Other teams that round out the list of top Super Bowl contenders include the Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, and New York Jets, all of which have at least a 5.0% chance of winning it all, according to the FPI. The Lions, in particular, have captured the attention of many NFL fans, showing flashes of brilliance on both sides of the ball and looking like legitimate postseason threats for the first time in years.
With the Bills and Chiefs leading the charge in the AFC, fans and analysts alike are already speculating about another potential playoff showdown between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. The rivalry between these two teams has produced some of the most memorable games in recent playoff history, and many believe that we could be headed for yet another epic clash in the AFC Championship Game.
One key matchup that could serve as a preview for this potential postseason battle is the November 17, 2024, game at Highmark Stadium, where the Bills will host the Chiefs. Given both teams’ current trajectories, that game could have serious implications for playoff seeding and give us a glimpse of what might be in store come January.
While the season is still young, the early data from ESPN’s FPI highlights the usual suspects—Buffalo, Kansas City, and Philadelphia—as the top Super Bowl contenders. However, with 14 more games to go, plenty of surprises and shakeups are likely to come, keeping the race for Super Bowl LIX wide open.
