Bill Simmons has made it abundantly clear that he is not a fan of ESPN’s decision to display win probability during Major League Baseball (MLB) playoff broadcasts. As part of its coverage this year, ESPN introduced a feature on its scorebug that shows each team’s win probability in real time. While the network likely aimed to enhance the viewing experience with additional analytics, the move has drawn criticism, particularly because the stat remains visible throughout the entire game, even in its earliest stages when the numbers are more arbitrary.
On his podcast this past Monday, Simmons took time to express his frustrations with ESPN’s presentation, specifically targeting the use of win probability during the Wild Card playoff round.
“I have a baseball playoff nitpick,” Simmons began, referencing his former employer’s broadcast strategy. “They put the win probability at the top now. Who is that for? Like, morons? Who is that for? Like, haven’t we paid enough homage to the nerds that we now have to have win probability?”
For Simmons, the statistic feels unnecessary and condescending to viewers. He argued that fans don’t need a graphic to tell them that a team with a lead is more likely to win, especially early in the game. The Ringer founder took particular issue with the fact that ESPN features win probability from the very beginning of the broadcast, even in the early innings when the percentage holds little value.
“Do we need win probability to describe a comeback?” Simmons asked. “Like, we need a stat to say that something was awesome? Who started this?”
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Simmons’ frustration goes beyond the stat itself. He feels that win probability detracts from the natural experience of watching a game. Instead of fans reacting organically to the tension of a close game or a potential comeback, they’re faced with a mathematical projection that, in his view, dulls the excitement of the unfolding drama.
To further his point, Simmons argued that Major League Baseball and ESPN are shifting away from letting fans simply enjoy the experience, opting instead to over-saturate broadcasts with data. “It feels like MLB doesn’t want fans to have any sort of natural reaction to watching games anymore,” he said.
Simmons’ podcast co-host, Cousin Sal Iacono, joined in on the conversation, jokingly poking fun at Simmons by calling him an “old man” who doesn’t get win probability. While the comment was lighthearted, Iacono also expressed concerns that displaying lopsided win probabilities early in the game could lead to negative consequences for ESPN’s ratings.
If viewers see that one team has a very high win probability in the middle innings, they might be tempted to change the channel, assuming the game is already decided.
Simmons countered by asserting that he fully understands win probability—he just doesn’t like it. He quipped that, rather than watching the game, he could simply track the win probability numbers and get the same sense of satisfaction. “How about this?” Simmons said sarcastically. “I won’t watch the game. Just text me what the win probability is. I’ll get super excited. Like, ‘Oh, they’re up to 88 percent?’ I don’t need to watch the game.”
While Simmons’ rant may have been laced with humor, it reflects a growing divide among sports fans and broadcasters. On one hand, there are viewers who appreciate the advanced metrics and deeper insights that modern broadcasts offer.
On the other hand, fans like Simmons argue that too much data can detract from the emotional and unpredictable nature of sports, particularly in high-stakes situations like playoff baseball.
As baseball continues to embrace analytics both on and off the field, the debate over how much statistical information should be included in broadcasts is unlikely to go away anytime soon.
For now, Simmons has made it clear where he stands—firmly against the constant barrage of win probability numbers.
