NFL fans and bettors are buzzing with conspiracy theories and frustration after what many are calling the “worst bad beat of all time.” The drama centers around Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery, who suffered a season-ending MCL tear during Sunday’s 48–42 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
The injury came at a devastating moment for bettors who placed preseason wagers on Montgomery’s rushing yard prop. The veteran back ended his 2024 campaign with a total of 775 rushing yards—just half a yard short of surpassing his preseason over/under line. Had he remained healthy for even one more play, many bettors would have cashed in on their overs.
In the aftermath of Montgomery’s injury, Bleacher Report Betting posted a graphic on social media highlighting the exact half-yard gap between bettors and a payout. “David Montgomery is out for the remainder of the season…” their post read, cautioning anyone who bet the Over to “look away.”
For many NFL fans and bettors, the coincidence was too glaring to ignore. The comment section lit up with accusations and suspicion that the league or betting markets somehow rigged the outcome.
“Now tell me the NFL isn’t rigged,” one user wrote, echoing a common refrain. Another chimed in, “Vegas has the NFL script,” implying that sportsbooks engineered the unfortunate scenario. Similar sentiments continued to pour in, with comments like, “Nothing is a coincidence” and “Cheaper to pay him off and tell him to sit out than pay out the winners.” Another skeptic added, “NFL Vegas rigged football, and they’re openly bragging about it.”
While the notion of a professional athlete orchestrating an injury to affect betting lines is far-fetched, the emotional outburst from bettors underscores how razor-thin the margins are in sports gambling—and how quickly the unexpected can derail even the best-laid wagers.
A Cascade of Injuries in Detroit
Montgomery’s season-ending setback wasn’t the only bad news for the Lions. Their 48–42 defeat to Buffalo also saw key defensive players succumb to serious injuries.
NFL insider Ian Rapoport reported Monday that two of the three defenders hurt in the game would likely be finished for the year. Defensive lineman Alim McNeill tore his ACL, dealing a significant blow to the Lions’ front seven. Meanwhile, cornerback Carlton Davis III suffered a fractured jaw and will undergo surgery.
Though Davis might recover in time for a potential NFC Championship Game on January 26, missing an extended stretch in the crucial late season and playoffs poses a huge challenge. Lions head coach Dan Campbell also revealed that cornerback Khalil Dorsey sustained an ankle injury severe enough to sideline him for the remainder of the year.
These setbacks follow another major injury earlier this season when standout defensive end Aidan Hutchinson broke his tibia and fibula in Week 6. Initially ruled out for the season, recent reports suggest there’s a slim chance he could make a miraculous return should the Lions reach the Super Bowl.
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Lions Still Eyeing a Deep Run
Despite the spate of injuries, Detroit remains in a strong position. The Lions sit atop the NFC North with a 12–2 record, boasting a roster and coaching staff that have defied expectations all year. With upcoming games against Chicago, San Francisco, and Minnesota, the Lions still have a shot at a top playoff seed and a legitimate championship run.
Dan Campbell’s squad, known for its resilience and “next man up” mentality, will need every bit of that determination down the stretch. The loss of key players on defense and the absence of their star running back will test the team’s depth and character, but the Lions have persevered through challenges before.
As the season progresses, the team and its fans will focus on the quest for postseason glory rather than the half-yard heartbreak that befell bettors. Yet, for those who lost their wagers by the slimmest of margins, the Montgomery saga will likely be remembered as one of the most painful “what ifs” in recent betting history.
Ultimately, the reality of sports gambling is that fortunes can change in an instant, and the line between winning and losing often comes down to a single play—or, in this case, half a yard.
While conspiracy theories may run rampant, most rational observers understand that injuries and timing are part of the unpredictable nature of sports, lending both excitement and heartbreak to the betting experience.
