ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has made a significant shift in its national championship prediction following Week 2 of the 2024 college football season. Coming into the season, Georgia was widely seen as the overwhelming favorite to win it all. After dominating the college football landscape for the past two years and returning much of their talent, including starting quarterback Carson Beck, the Bulldogs seemed poised for another title run. Every major poll placed Georgia at No. 1, and the FPI had them listed as the top contender for a third straight national championship.
However, Week 2 has shaken things up in the college football landscape, and the FPI now has a new favorite to hoist the national title trophy: the Texas Longhorns.
According to the updated FPI rankings, Texas now holds a 19.6 percent chance of winning the national championship, the highest of any team in the country. The Longhorns have overtaken Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama, all perennial powerhouses, as the FPI’s most likely national champions.
Here’s a breakdown of the updated national title odds, per ESPN’s FPI:
- Texas – 19.6 percent
- Ohio State – 17.5 percent
- Georgia – 16.9 percent
- Alabama – 15.6 percent
- Tennessee – 6.6 percent
The FPI model clearly favors four teams—Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama—with each having a strong shot at the title. Tennessee rounds out the top five, though its odds are noticeably lower.
Texas has made a strong statement early in the season, asserting itself as a legitimate contender. After a heartbreaking loss to Washington in the College Football Playoff last season, the Longhorns are determined to prove they belong on the national stage. In Week 2, Texas delivered a resounding victory over Michigan in Ann Arbor, further solidifying their claim as a national title threat.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian, reflecting on his team’s success, emphasized the maturity and confidence his squad now has after facing top competition in recent seasons.
“I reminded the guys about how we’ve gone into Tuscaloosa [last year] and played and won,” Sarkisian said after the Michigan game. “We’ve played in a Big 12 championship game. We’ve played in the College Football Playoff, and so none of the moments should feel too big for us anymore. That’s just what I commended them for in the locker room. This is who we are. This is how we know how to play.”
The Longhorns’ performance in Week 2 wasn’t just about winning a big game; it was about proving that they can compete with—and beat—the best teams in the country. Texas, behind quarterback Quinn Ewers and a talented roster on both sides of the ball, seems to have found its rhythm, and the FPI reflects that confidence in their title aspirations.
Georgia, while still a top contender, has seen its odds slip slightly to 16.9 percent. This drop might reflect early struggles in their season or adjustments in the FPI model based on other teams’ performances. Ohio State, another team in the championship mix, holds a 17.5 percent chance of winning the title, bolstered by a solid start to their season and the strength of their defense. Alabama, despite a loss in Week 2, remains in the mix with a 15.6 percent chance, while Tennessee has emerged as a dark horse with a 6.6 percent shot.
As the 2024 season progresses, Texas will face more challenges, but their Week 2 blowout win has sent a message: the Longhorns are ready to reclaim their place at the top of college football.
For now, they sit atop ESPN’s FPI rankings as the team to beat, and the rest of the country will be watching closely to see if they can maintain that momentum.
