Since the 2000 NFL season, there have been 24 NFL Offensive Rookies of the Year.
Of these 24, the positional breakdown includes 10 quarterbacks, five receivers, and nine running backs. Additionally, only five players have been drafted outside of the first round.
The outliers are Alvin Kamara (2017), Dak Prescott (2016), Eddie Lacy (2012), Anthony Thomas (2001), and Mike Anderson (2000). If you’re betting on a long shot from Days 2 and 3 of the draft, choose a running back. However, that could be challenging this year. The first running back off the board was Jonathan Brooks to the Carolina Panthers, who may be passing frequently to overcome deficits.
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For this list, we’re focusing on the most likely candidates, which means first-rounders.
5. Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
In two years as a starter with the North Carolina Tar Heels, Maye threw for 62 touchdowns and 16 interceptions despite lacking elite talent around him. For Maye to win this award, he’ll need to elevate the surrounding talent once more. New England added rookie receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, who will join veterans Kendrick Bourne and K.J. Osborn on the perimeter.
Maye’s best argument as a favorite is that his success will be due to his own performance rather than being carried by a superior supporting cast.
4. Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Worthy is a smart pick for several reasons. He’s a receiver for Patrick Mahomes, and with Rashee Rice potentially facing a suspension, Worthy could quickly take on a significant role. After three productive years at Texas, Worthy will be used as a leading wideout and returner for Kansas City, similar to how Tyreek Hill was utilized as a rookie in 2016 under coach Andy Reid. Worthy’s dual roles could lead to instant stardom, especially given the Chiefs’ primetime presence and Mahomes’ targeting.
3. Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Daniels is a top contender. The Commanders might not be loaded with talent, but they do have Terry McLaurin and third-year pro Jahan Dotson. Daniels’ running ability sets him apart, as he ran for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns during his Heisman Trophy-winning season at LSU. His legs give Washington’s offense another dimension, though the question remains whether he’ll have enough support beyond McLaurin.
2. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
After dominating in his final two years at Ohio State, Harrison Jr. was drafted No. 4 by the Cardinals. He’s poised for immediate success as the top receiver on the team following Marquise “Hollywood” Brown’s departure. With Kyler Murray as his quarterback, Harrison will get plenty of targets and opportunities to shine. Arizona’s likely struggles could also lead to Harrison padding his stats with late-game yardage and touchdowns.
1. Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
This is no surprise. While No. 9 pick Rome Odunze isn’t on the list, if Odunze has a huge year, it likely means Williams did as well. Considering both the positional value and justified hype surrounding Williams, the quarterback will likely win the voting battle unless Odunze does something historic. Williams is set up for success with a quality offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron and an exciting trio of receivers in Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and Odunze. While the award race will be interesting to watch, Williams is the clear favorite.
