Here’s the NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Here are the lottery odds for all 14 teams involved, and what landing Wembanyama would mean to them.
Detroit Pistons: No.1 14%, top four 52.1%. The Pistons had high hopes for making it to the play-in spot in the previous season until Cade Cunningham’s leg injury forced him to undergo surgery, ultimately ending his season prematurely. Nonetheless, the team boasts a strong young core comprising former No. 1 pick Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Killian Hayes, and Isaiah Stewart. If the Pistons secure one of the top two picks and add it to their squad, they could potentially become contenders within a few years. Or, if they end up with a lower pick, they still have the opportunity to further enhance their core by adding another exceptional player. The Pistons have the potential to transform into something remarkable.
Houston Rockets: No.1 14%, top four 52.1%. The Rockets possess the potential of augmenting their youthful core by acquiring a top pick. Combining Wembanyama and Alperen Şengün may result in a formidable front court, given their adeptness at passing and shooting. Additionally, the prospect of a Scoot Henderson and Jalen Green tandem promises to deliver a thrilling offensive charge. Nevertheless, the Rockets are resolute in their pursuit to secure veteran free agents to improve their chances of winning in the immediate future, and their plan remains unaffected by the lottery results. James Harden is a priority target.
San Antonio Spurs: No.1 14%, top four 52.1%. If the Spurs were to win the Wembanyama sweepstakes, it would be quite comparable to when the Spurs lucked out in the lottery and landed Tim Duncan, ultimately creating a dynasty. Or, it could be deemed as when they acquired David Robinson, which laid the foundation for their successful years. Rumors have hinted at the possibility of Gregg Popovich sticking around for another year or two if the Spurs secure the top pick. If so, the starting lineup would feature Wembanyama, along with Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Jeremy Sochan, which although may not yield many wins in the first year, would certainly generate excitement.
Charlotte Hornets: No.1 12.5%, top four 48.1%. Combining LaMelo Ball and Wembanyama would potentially form one of the most popular teams among young fans on social media platforms. Moreover, they could quickly turn into a winning team provided the rest of the squad is bolstered. With experienced players such as Terry Rozier, the hard-to-trade Gordon Hayward, and P.J. Washington, the Hornets could even contend for a play-in berth in the upcoming season.
Portland Trail Blazers: No.1 10.5%, top four 42.1%. Let’s stay optimistic and not replicate Portland’s past picks. The Trail Blazers are determined to make a significant trade this summer, but it’s not to trade Damian Lillard, as some rival fans expect. Instead, the plan is to bring another top player next to Lillard in order to contend for the championship. Acquiring Wembanyama could entail trading center Jusuf Nurkic for a quality player, and starting Wembanyama alongside a re-signed Jerami Grant in the frontcourt, with added depth on the wings and backcourt to make a playoff-worthy team in their first year.
Orlando Magic: No.1 9%, top four 37.2%. In the past, the Orlando Magic achieved back-to-back victories in the NBA Draft Lottery, in 1992 and 1993, which facilitated the drafting of prestigious players such as Shaquille O’Neal and Penny Hardaway. Just last year, the team secured the first pick and chose Paolo Banchero, who later became the recipient of the Rookie of the Year award. Combining Banchero with new addition Wembanyama, alongside established players like the dependable point guard Markelle Fultz, and rising talents such as Wendell Carter Jr., creates an unbeatable young core within the league of basketball (which could also be the case if they acquire the second pick and add Scoot Henderson). Furthermore, a frontcourt collaboration between Jonathan Isaac and Wembanyama, should he stay in good health, would ensure a formidable defense.
Indiana Pacers: No.1 6.8%, top four 29.4%. If the Pacers acquire Wembanyama, they will immediately bolster their young core, making them one of the most promising teams in the league. Their frontcourt would feature a dominant defensive duo comprised of Myles Turner at center and Wembanyama at the four. Tyrese Haliburton would excel as their excellent point guard, supported on the wing by a mixture of Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin and Buddy Hield. Under the guidance of renowned coach Rick Carlisle, this squad would make the playoffs in their first year (a feat they were close to achieving before Haliburton’s injury) and could ultimately develop into a championship contender.
Washington Wizards: No.1 6.7%, top four 29%. The addition of Wembanyama to Washington’s roster would greatly enhance the credentials of the incoming GM. This raises questions about the team’s future plans, such as whether to renew Kristaps Porzingis’ contract, which has a player option of $36 million and allow Coach Wes Unseld to experiment with a two-big lineup. The team will likely retain Kyle Kuzma, enabling a lineup featuring an unnamed point guard, Bradley Beal, Kuzma, Wembanyama, and Porzingis — potentially satisfying ownership’s desire for a playoff team, as long as they remain injury-free.
Utah Jazz: No.1 4.5%, top four 20.3%. If Lauri Markkanen and Wembanyama were added to the team, they would form a front court that is not only one of the longest but also the most versatile and interesting, with Walker Kessler expected to play center. While reaching the playoffs in the first year would be a given, a lot of work still needs to be done to build a complete roster to support this front line in the long run. Fortunately, Danny Ainge and the Utah front office have a wealth of draft picks from the trades involving Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, which can be employed or exchanged to resolve the puzzle.
Dallas Mavericks: No.1 3%, top four 13.9%. The main concern for the Dallas front office is the possibility of another team jumping ahead of them in the NBA draft and forcing the Mavericks to select at No. 11, which would result in the Knicks obtaining their pick due to the Porzingis trade. As a result, Dallas intentionally played poorly towards the end of the season in order to secure a top 10 pick. If they win the lottery, the Mavericks’ prospects would immediately improve, as they would have a potential star player to complement Luka Dončić regardless of Kyrie Irving’s free agency decision. A pairing of Dončić and Wembanyama could be one of the most exciting duos in the league right from the start.
Chicago Bulls: No.1 1.8%, top four 8.5%. In the absence of the Bulls being fortunate enough to secure an 8.5% chance of breaking into the top four, the Orlando Magic will inherit this pick in exchange for the Nikola Vucevic trade. Conversely, if the Bulls are indeed fortunate enough to snag the top spot, they will clinch a key player, the likes of which they have not seen since the days of Derrick Rose, and something that is vital to their current roster. With the sizable Chicago market and the fan base of the Bulls, one can only imagine that there are several individuals among the league office rooting for the Bulls to achieve such luck.
Oklahoma City Thunder: No.1 1.7%, top four 8%. Should fortune favor OKC in the lottery, they have the potential to establish an NBA dynasty in the Midwest. Presently, the Thunder has an All-NBA First Team guard in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey as a secondary scorer, Jalen Williams as a promising big man, and Chet Holmgren, who was the second overall pick last year but was unable to play due to injury. With the addition of Wembanyama, the team’s potential could skyrocket. Furthermore, GM/president Sam Presti has an abundance of first-round picks in forthcoming years to complete the roster.
Toronto Raptors: No.1 1%, top four 4.8%. Although it may seem unlikely, the addition of Wembanyama (or Henderson) to a team composed of the height and athleticism of Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby could result in a playoff contender in the near future. If they also manage to retain Jakob Poeltl, Fred VanVleet, and Gary Trent Jr. – all of whom are currently free agents – the team could become a serious threat in the Eastern Conference in the next few years. A new coach who is fortunate enough to win the lottery would undoubtedly receive immediate recognition for their intelligence.
New Orleans Pelicans: No.1 0.5%, top four 2.4%. While it may seem unlikely, imagining a duo of Zion Williamson and Wembanyama dominating the frontcourt is an exciting thought (assuming they can remain injury-free). If coupled with the talents of Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Herb Jones, the potential for a thrilling and formidable team in New Orleans is vast (although, let’s be honest, the team is already pretty exciting and dynamic as it is, as long as all the players can stay healthy and play together consistently).
